大多数人都更容易高估自己的聪明才智与经验技巧。如果自身能力不足以匹配这种认知，往往会引发严重的后果。但对于某些人来说，过度自信是否也能带来一些好处呢？阅读本文，了解 “overconfidence（过度自信）” 背后的心理学原理，以及为何研究人员会将其与孔雀的华丽羽毛联系在一起。
词汇：confidence 自信
1 Do you know anyone who is more confident in their own abilities than their actual performance suggests they should be? Perhaps they think they are an incredible singer, but they’re actually tone-deaf. Most people believe that they are more intelligent and skilful than the average person, according to a 2020 meta-analysis by Zell and colleagues. Obviously, this cannot be the case. Overconfidence has a cost – it can lead to things like poor financial decisions and dangerous driving. So why do we have such a tendency to overestimate our abilities?
2 Excessive self-belief requires self-deception – believing your own falsehoods. An evolutionary perspective argues that humans evolved self-deception so that we could deceive others more easily. The theory goes that if you believe your own lies about your abilities, you’re less likely to display behaviours which will give it away, such as nervousness or hesitation. Deceiving others about your abilities may enable you to open doors, but it is when you have to prove yourself that overconfidence can lead to costly mistakes. For those who have a greater underlying ability, though, overconfidence can be highly beneficial.
3 This is what researchers are calling the ‘peacock‘s tail for people’. Peacocks have long and brightly coloured feathers to attract females, but they are extremely burdensome. The feathers are heavy and highly visible to predators, so only the healthiest peacocks can afford to carry such elaborate plumage. In other words, their feathers are a reliable indicator of their suitability for potential mates. Authors of a 2026 study, published in the Psychological Review compare this phenomenon with human overconfidence. They argue that only the most capable people can keep a high self-belief without suffering severe consequences. In other words, overconfidence may actually be a useful signal of ability.
4 So, what lessons can be learnt from all this? If you have a high ability in a particular skill, make sure you have the confidence to match it. Ability can bring success, but remember, it is confidence which opens the doors in the first place.
测验与练习
一、将标题和段落配对。
Paragraph 1 _______
Paragraph 2 _______
Paragraph 3 _______
Paragraph 4 _______
Paragraph 5 _______
a. The advice
b. Confident humans are like healthy peacocks
c. Overconfidence is part of human evolution
d. Teenagers tend to have a lack of confidence
e. The costs of overconfidence
二、根据文章内容选出正确的选项。
1. Most people are overconfident.
a. True
b. False
c. Not given
2. Overconfidence is always a good thing.
a. True
b. False
c. Not given
3. When you believe your own lies about your abilities, you are more likely to…
a. deceive others effectively.
b. be nervous or hesitate.
c. make costly mistakes.
4. Authors of the 2026 study compare peacock feathers to…
a. human health.
b. human ability.
c. human overconfidence.
5. The article writer argues that overconfidence is…
a. mostly positive.
b. mostly negative.
c. neither positive nor negative.
三、用下列单词完成对本文的总结。
Humans have a 1) _______ to be overconfident, believing their 2) _______ is better than it actually is. Confidence may make it easier to 3) _______ people about your abilities, but once you’ve opened the doors, you then have to 4) _______, and if your abilities don’t match up, negative consequences can follow. But success can come when high 5) _______ is balanced with a high level of ability.
self-belief
performance
phenomenon
deceive
tendency
burdensome
prove yourself
（答案见词汇表后）
词汇表
performance 表现
tone-deaf 五音不全的
tendency 倾向，趋势
overestimate 高估
self-belief 自信，自我信念
self-deception 自我欺骗
falsehood 谎言，虚假陈述
deceive 欺骗
give (something) away 泄漏，暴露（某事）
hesitation 犹豫
prove oneself 证明自己
underlying 潜在的，根本的，深层的
peacock 孔雀
burdensome 沉重的
elaborate 华丽繁复的
plumage 全身羽毛，羽衣
phenomenon 现象
答案
一、将标题和段落配对。
Paragraph 1 e) The costs of overconfidence
Paragraph 2 c) Overconfidence is part of human evolution
Paragraph 3 b) Confident humans are like healthy peacocks
Paragraph 4 a) The advice
二、根据文章内容选出正确的选项。
1. a. True. Most people believe that they are more intelligent and skilful than the average person, according to a 2020 meta-analysis by Zell and colleagues.
2. b. False. Overconfidence has a cost – it can lead to things like poor financial decisions and dangerous driving.
3. a. An evolutionary perspective argues that humans evolved self-deception so that we could deceive others more easily.
4. c. Authors of a 2026 study, published in the Psychological Review compare this phenomenon [the display of peacock feathers] with human overconfidence.
5. a. While overconfidence can be costly, it is largely positive due to its ability to open doors for people and be a useful signal of ability for those observing.
三、用下列单词完成对本文的总结。
Humans have a tendency to be overconfident, believing their performance is better than it actually is. Confidence may make it easier to deceive people about your abilities, but once you’ve opened the doors, you then have to prove yourself, and if your abilities don’t match up, negative consequences can follow. But success can come when high self-belief is balanced with a high level of ability.